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JK Cement Ltd.’s Q4 FY22 Ebitda of Rs 3.83 billion, down 20% YoY, was in line with our/consensus estimates. Blended realisation declined 1.3% QoQ (rose 8.6% YoY) while total cost/tonne increased 1.5% QoQ (19% YoY).
This resulted in blended Ebitda/tonne shrinking 13% QoQ (21% YoY) to Rs 973/tonne (our estimate: Rs 993/tonne).
Panna greenfield expansion (four million tonne) is on track and likely to be commissioned in Q3 FY23. This would drive strong ~13% volume compound annual growth rate over FY21-FY24E for JK Cement leading to market share gains.
Factoring-in higher cost escalations, we reduce our FY23E-FY24E Ebitda by 8-18%.
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