COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Eventualities | CDC
Desk 1. Parameter Values that adjust among the many 5 COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Eventualities. The eventualities are meant to advance public well being preparedness and planning. They’re not predictions or estimates of the anticipated affect of COVID-19. The parameter values in every situation can be up to date and augmented over time, as we study extra concerning the epidemiology of COVID-19. Further parameter values may be added sooner or later (e.g., inhabitants density, family transmission, and/or race and ethnicity).
Parameter values are based mostly on information obtained by CDC previous to 4/29/2020
| Parameter | State of affairs 1 | State of affairs 2 | State of affairs 3 | State of affairs 4 | State of affairs 5: Present Finest Estimate Ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 |
| Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age in years Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | 0-49: 0.0002 | 0-49: 0.0002 | 0-49: 0.001 | 0-49: 0.001 | 0-49: 0.0005 |
| 50-64: 0.001 | 50-64: 0.001 | 50-64: 0.006 | 50-64: 0.006 | 50-64: 0.002 | |
| 65+: 0.006 | 65+: 0.006 | 65+: 0.032 | 65+: 0.032 | 65+: 0.013 | |
| General: 0.002 | General: 0.002 | General: 0.010 | General: 0.010 | General: 0.004 | |
| Symptomatic Case Hospitalization Ratio, stratified by age in years Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | 0–49: 0.013 | 0–49: 0.013 | 0–49: 0.026 | 0–49: 0.026 | 0–49: 0.017 |
| 50–64: 0.036 | 50–64: 0.036 | 50–64: 0.057 | 50–64: 0.057 | 50–64: 0.045 | |
| 65+: 0.052 | 65+: 0.052 | 65+: 0.10 | 65+: 0.10 | 65+: 0.074 | |
| General: 0.028 | General: 0.028 | General: 0.041 | General: 0.041 | General: 0.034 | |
| % of infections which might be asymptomatic Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC | 20% | 50% | 20% | 50% | 35% |
| Infectiousness of asymptomatic people relative to symptomatic people Supply: Assumption, ASPR and CDC | 50% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 100% |
Desk 2. Parameter Values Widespread to the 5 COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Eventualities. The parameter values are more likely to change as we receive further information about illness severity and viral transmissibility of COVID-19.
Parameter values are based mostly on information obtained by CDC previous to 4/29/2020
| Pre-existing immunity Supply: Assumption, ASPR and CDC | No pre-existing immunity earlier than the pandemic started in 2019. It’s assumed that each one members of the U.S. inhabitants had been inclined to an infection previous to the pandemic. |
|---|---|
| Proportion of transmission occurring previous to symptom onset: Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC | 40% |
| Time from publicity to symptom onset Supply: Pre-publication COVID-19 estimates* | ~6 days (imply) |
| Time between symptom onset in a person and symptom onset of a second individual contaminated by that particular person Supply: Pre-publication COVID-19 estimates | ~6 days (imply) |
| Parameter Values Associated to Healthcare Utilization | |
| Time to hunt care (outpatient) Supply: Survey of individuals with Influenza like sickness (ILI), CDC† | ≤2 days: 35% 3–7 days: 50% ≥Eight days: 25% |
| Imply variety of days from symptom onset to hospitalization (normal deviation) Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC§ | 0-49 years: 6.9 (5.0) days 50-64 years: 7.2 (5.3) days ≥65 years: 6.2 (5.7) days |
| Imply variety of days of hospitalization amongst these not admitted to ICU (normal deviation) ¶ Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | 0-49 years: 3.9 (3.7) days 50-64 years: 4.9 (4.3) days ≥65 years: 6.3 (5.1) days |
| Imply variety of days of hospitalization amongst these admitted to ICU (normal deviation) ¶ Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | 0-49 years: 9.5 (7.2) days 50-64 years: 10.5 (7.0) days ≥65 years: 10.0 (6.8) days |
| % admitted to ICU amongst these hospitalized Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | 0-49 years: 21.9% 50-64 years: 29.2% ≥65 years: 26.8% |
| % on mechanical air flow amongst these in ICU Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | 0-49 years: 72.1% 50-64 years: 77.6% ≥65 years: 75.5% |
| Imply variety of days of mechanical air flow (normal deviation) Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC | General: 5.5 (5.3) days |
| Imply variety of days from symptom onset to loss of life (normal deviation) Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC§ | 0-49 years: 14.9 (7.7) days 50-64 years: 15.3 (8.1) days ≥65 years: 12.9 (7.6) days |
| Imply variety of days from loss of life to reporting (normal deviation) Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC** | 0-49 years: 7.1 (7.7) days 50-64 years: 7.2 (7.7) days ≥65 years: 6.6 (7.3) days |
*Khalili, M., Karamouzian, M., Nasiri, N., Javadi, S., Mirzazadeh, A., & Sharifi, H. (2020). Epidemiological Traits of COVID-19: A Systemic Assessment and Meta-Evaluation. medRxiv.
† Biggerstaff, M., Jhung, M. A., Reed, C., Fry, A. M., Balluz, L., & Finelli, L. (2014). Influenza-like sickness, the time to hunt healthcare, and influenza antiviral receipt in the course of the 2010–2011 influenza season—United States. The Journal of infectious ailments, 210(4), 535-544.
§ Estimates solely embody onset dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to make sure circumstances have had enough time to look at the result (hospital admission or loss of life).
¶ Estimates solely embody hospital admission dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to make sure circumstances have had enough time to look at the result (hospital discharge or loss of life).
** Estimates solely embody loss of life dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to make sure enough time for reporting.
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