Coronavirus

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Eventualities | CDC

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Desk 1. Parameter Values that adjust among the many 5 COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Eventualities. The eventualities are meant to advance public well being preparedness and planningThey’re not predictions or estimates of the anticipated affect of COVID-19.  The parameter values in every situation can be up to date and augmented over time, as we study extra concerning the epidemiology of COVID-19.  Further parameter values may be added sooner or later (e.g., inhabitants density, family transmission, and/or race and ethnicity).

Parameter values are based mostly on information obtained by CDC previous to 4/29/2020

Parameter values Desk 1
Parameter State of affairs 1 State of affairs 2 State of affairs 3 State of affairs 4 State of affairs 5:

Present Finest Estimate

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R

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC

2 2 3 3 2.5
Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age in years

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0-49: 0.0002

0-49: 0.0002

0-49: 0.001

0-49: 0.001

0-49: 0.0005

50-64: 0.001

50-64: 0.001

50-64: 0.006

50-64: 0.006

50-64: 0.002

65+: 0.006

65+: 0.006

65+: 0.032

65+: 0.032

65+: 0.013

General: 0.002

General: 0.002

General: 0.010

General: 0.010

General: 0.004

Symptomatic Case Hospitalization Ratio, stratified by age in years

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0–49: 0.013

0–49: 0.013

0–49: 0.026

0–49: 0.026

0–49: 0.017

50–64: 0.036

50–64: 0.036

50–64: 0.057

50–64: 0.057

50–64: 0.045

65+: 0.052

65+: 0.052

65+: 0.10

65+: 0.10

65+: 0.074

General: 0.028

General: 0.028

General: 0.041

General: 0.041

General: 0.034

% of infections which might be asymptomatic

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC

20% 50% 20% 50% 35%
Infectiousness of asymptomatic people relative to symptomatic people

Supply: Assumption, ASPR and CDC

50% 100% 50% 100% 100%
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Desk 2.   Parameter Values Widespread to the 5 COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Eventualities.  The parameter values are more likely to change as we receive further information about illness severity and viral transmissibility of COVID-19.

Parameter values are based mostly on information obtained by CDC previous to 4/29/2020

Parameter values Desk 2
Pre-existing immunity

Supply: Assumption, ASPR and CDC

No pre-existing immunity earlier than the pandemic started in 2019. It’s assumed that each one members of the U.S. inhabitants had been inclined to an infection previous to the pandemic.
Proportion of transmission occurring previous to symptom onset:

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC

40%
Time from publicity to symptom onset

Supply: Pre-publication COVID-19 estimates*

~6 days (imply)
Time between symptom onset in a person and symptom onset of a second individual contaminated by that particular person

Supply: Pre-publication COVID-19 estimates

~6 days (imply)
Parameter Values Associated to Healthcare Utilization
Time to hunt care (outpatient)

Supply: Survey of individuals with Influenza like sickness (ILI), CDC

≤2 days: 35%

3–7 days: 50%

≥Eight days: 25%

Imply variety of days from symptom onset to hospitalization (normal deviation)

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC§

0-49 years: 6.9 (5.0) days

50-64 years: 7.2 (5.3) days

≥65 years: 6.2 (5.7) days

Imply variety of days of hospitalization amongst these not admitted to ICU (normal deviation)

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0-49 years: 3.9 (3.7) days

50-64 years: 4.9 (4.3) days

≥65 years: 6.3 (5.1) days

Imply variety of days of hospitalization amongst these admitted to ICU (normal deviation)

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0-49 years: 9.5 (7.2) days

50-64 years: 10.5 (7.0) days

≥65 years: 10.0 (6.8) days

% admitted to ICU amongst these hospitalized

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0-49 years: 21.9%

50-64 years: 29.2%

≥65 years: 26.8%

% on mechanical air flow amongst these in ICU

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0-49 years: 72.1%

50-64 years: 77.6%

≥65 years: 75.5%

Imply variety of days of mechanical air flow (normal deviation)

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

General: 5.5 (5.3) days
Imply variety of days from symptom onset to loss of life (normal deviation)

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC§

0-49 years: 14.9 (7.7) days

50-64 years: 15.3 (8.1) days

≥65 years: 12.9 (7.6) days

Imply variety of days from loss of life to reporting (normal deviation)

Supply: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC**

0-49 years: 7.1 (7.7) days

50-64 years: 7.2 (7.7) days

≥65 years: 6.6 (7.3) days

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*Khalili, M., Karamouzian, M., Nasiri, N., Javadi, S., Mirzazadeh, A., & Sharifi, H. (2020). Epidemiological Traits of COVID-19: A Systemic Assessment and Meta-Evaluation. medRxiv.

† Biggerstaff, M., Jhung, M. A., Reed, C., Fry, A. M., Balluz, L., & Finelli, L. (2014). Influenza-like sickness, the time to hunt healthcare, and influenza antiviral receipt in the course of the 2010–2011 influenza season—United States. The Journal of infectious ailments210(4), 535-544.

§ Estimates solely embody onset dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to make sure circumstances have had enough time to look at the result (hospital admission or loss of life).

¶ Estimates solely embody hospital admission dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to make sure circumstances have had enough time to look at the result (hospital discharge or loss of life).

** Estimates solely embody loss of life dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to make sure enough time for reporting.

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