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2021 NBA Playoffs: 76ers vs. Hawks odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from model on 100-66 roll

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Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers will take on Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 of their second round matchup in the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Monday. After falling behind with a Game 1 loss, the Sixers won the last two games, including a road win in Atlanta on Friday. Philadelphia is in control of the series as a result and is now trading at +750 to win the 2021 championship in the latest NBA odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Atlanta, on the other hand, is a longshot to win the NBA Finals at +8000 and is aiming to even the series score with a bounce-back win in Game 4. 

Embiid (knee), who has dominated the series with elite efficiency and production, is officially listed as questionable for the 76ers. Danny Green (calf) is out for Philadelphia and De’Andre Hunter (knee) is ruled out for the Hawks. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. William Hill lists the 76ers as three-point road favorites in the latest 76ers vs. Hawks odds, while the over-under is 225.5. Before you make any Hawks vs. 76ers picks and NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered this week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

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Now, the model has set its sights on 76ers vs. Hawks. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Hawks vs. 76ers:

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  • 76ers vs. Hawks spread: 76ers -3 
  • 76ers vs. Hawks over-under: 225.5 points 
  • 76ers vs. Hawks money line: 76ers -145, Hawks +125 
  • PHI: 76ers are 11-6 against the spread as road favorites 
  • ATL: Hawks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Why the 76ers can cover

Joel Embiid finished just short of winning the 2020-21 NBA MVP award, but he’s playing like the best player on the floor in this series. Philadelphia is outscoring Atlanta by an incredible 19.4 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court. The Hawks are making gains (-12.2 net rating) when Embiid rests, but with the 76ers receiving 35.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game from Embiid to go along with elite defense, there’s no much Atlanta can do. In fact, Philadelphia is scoring 1.26 points per possession in their two victories, assisting on 62 percent of their field goals and benefitting from ball movement.

After committing a bevy of turnovers in Game 1, the Sixers are turning the ball over on only 10.3 percent of possessions, an elite figure, in the last two games. Defensively, the 76ers are forcing a turnover on 14.9 percent of possessions, which lessens Atlanta’s overall offensive efficiency (1.09 points per possession in the last two games) and fuels Philadelphia’s transition offense. The 76ers are also taking full advantage of a few liabilities from Atlanta, picking on Clint Capela (who has a -19.8 net rating in the series) and breezing through any lineup featuring a non-shooter like Solomon Hill.

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Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta displayed a potentially interesting formula for success in Game 1. By attempting 47 three-pointers, the Hawks swung the math in their favor, particularly with Philadelphia heavily focused on post-ups with Embiid. Atlanta has created fewer three-point attempts since then, but the Hawks have found success in producing above-average offensive efficiency with any lineup that does not feature Solomon Hill. For the series, the Hawks are scoring more than 1.21 points per possession with Hill off the court, and they went to a big lineup featuring Danilo Gallinari, John Collins and Clint Capela during the second half of Game 3.

The Hawks could also benefit from increased ball security and offensive rebounding, as they were a top-10 team in both turnover rate (13.3 percent) and offensive rebound rate (28.4 percent) during the regular season. In a series in which they are facing a highly talented Sixers team, the Hawks could lean into playing the math, particularly with Trae Young maintaining a 59.1 percent true shooting clip on 33.7 percent usage during the first three games.

How to make 76ers vs. Hawks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with Joel Embiid and Bogdan Bogdanovic projected to fall below their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get this pick on SportsLine.

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So who wins 76ers vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Hawks vs. 76ers spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.


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