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Mavericks vs. Jazz odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, Jan. 29 predictions from model on 69-40 roll

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The Utah Jazz host the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night for the second straight game between the teams. Utah prevailed in the first matchup, toppling Dallas by a 12-point margin. The Jazz have won 10 consecutive games, improving to 14-4 on the season. The Mavericks are 8-10 overall after three straight defeats, though Dallas is a respectable 6-6 on the road in 2020-21. Donovan Mitchell (concussion) and Derrick Favors (back) are questionable for Utah, with Maxi Kleber (protocols) out for Dallas.

Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET in Salt Lake City. William Hill Sportsbook lists Utah as a four-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Jazz odds. Before entering any Jazz vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 69-40 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

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Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Jazz. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavs:

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  • Mavericks vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -4
  • Mavericks vs. Jazz over-under: 221.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -165; Mavericks +145
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • UTAH: The Jazz are 10-0 against the spread in the last 10 games

Latest Odds:

Utah Jazz
-4

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks are led by the robust offensive pairing of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic is an MVP candidate, averaging 27.4 points, 9.7 assists and 9.4 rebounds per game, keying the shot creation for Dallas. Porzingis is a tremendous play finisher, averaging 19.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and he also protects the rim at a high level. As a team, Dallas is scoring almost 1.14 points per possession with Doncic on the floor this season, and the Mavericks were the best overall offense in the NBA in 2019-20. 

Some of that comes from protecting the ball, turning the ball over on only 12.2 percent of possessions, and the Jazz are dead-last in the NBA in turnover creation rate at 11.6 percent. Utah is also a bottom-five team at generating free throw attempts on offense, allowing Dallas to be a little bit more aggressive, and the Mavericks are above-average in contesting shots, allowing an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent to opponents.

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Why the Jazz can cover

Utah is a rare team with top-five units on offense and defense. The Jazz are scoring more than 1.14 points per possession this season, with the No. 4 mark in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (55.2 percent) and the No. 2 ranking in offensive rebound rate (30.3 percent). Utah benefits from stellar guard play, and the Jazz are also facing a below-average defense against Dallas. 

Defensively, the Jazz are tremendous, giving up fewer than 1.07 points per possession, and Rudy Gobert remains an elite defensive force. The All-Star center is averaging 13.4 points, 14.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game, and he is a deterrent against any opposition. Utah also leads the NBA in free throw rate allowed, with a No. 2 ranking in effective field goal shooting allowed, and the Jazz should be able to slow the Mavericks’ diverse attack.

How to make Mavericks vs. Jazz picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 226 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Jazz vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Jazz vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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