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Bears at Saints odds, picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for wild-card round

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There are only a few things better than playoff football at the Superdome. None come to mind at the moment, which only stamps home the fact that we’re in for a doozy on Sunday afternoon. That’s where the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears will kick off their Super Wild-Card Weekend matchup, which is a game that has no shortage of storylines. For the Saints, they are about to embark on what appears to be one last playoff run with franchise quarterback Drew Brees. Meanwhile, Mitchell Trubisky is making a late push to remain as Chicago’s starting quarterback going forward and would almost guarantee that fate if he pulls off the upset on Sunday. 

Here, we’re going to cannonball into all the different betting angles that this game has to offer, including the spread and total. Along with those, we’ll also take a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week to see how the public is viewing this head-to-head. Of course, we can’t forget about player props! All that analysis and more can be found below. 

All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook. 

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How to watch 

Date: Sunday, Jan. 10 | Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans) 
TV: CBS, Nickelodeon | Stream: CBS All Access
Follow: CBS Sports App

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Bears (8-8) at Saints (12-4)

Latest Odds:

Chicago Bears
+10

New Orleans opened as a 9.5-point favorite in this matchup and that advantage tipped into double-digits to Saints -10 by Wednesday. That spread has held firm throughout the week and heading into the weekend on Friday. These two teams did meet earlier this season and required overtime before New Orleans edged out the 26-23 victory. The key difference in that game was that it was Nick Foles starting for Chicago instead of Mitchell Trubisky, who has since reclaimed the starting job and played well. 

Since failing to cover that 5-point spread as the road favorite in Week 8, the Saints are 7-2 ATS. However, their recent playoff history isn’t that promising for those wanting to lay the points. Sean Payton’s club is 0-3 ATS in the playoffs over the last two seasons and in his playoff career Drew Brees is just 2-9 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Chicago is 6-3 SU with Trubisky this season were able to make a late push to the postseason because of his revitalized play. 

What could end up being an X-factor in this game is the ascension of David Montgomery as an elite back in the NFL and the Saints’ poor play against the run as of late. Over the last four games, New Orleans is allowing nearly 150 yards per game on the ground and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Montgomery is averaging 99.7 rushing yards per game and seven touchdowns over his last six contests. If Chicago can play strong defense and run the ball effectively to keep Brees and the Saints offense off the field, there’s a formula for Chicago to at least keep this game within double-digits. 

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Projected score: Saints 27, Bears 24

Over/Under

The total opened at 48 and has since dipped a full point to 47 heading into the weekend. Between these two clubs, the Over went 18-14 over the course of the regular season. Specifically, Saints overs have hit in six of their eight home games this season and they are the only club in the league to score 20 or more points in every game this season. As for the Bears, the offense is averaging 28.3 points per game with Trubisky under center and the Over has hit in seven of his nine starts. 

Projected total: 51

Player props

Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+200). We all know how much Sean Payton loves deploying Hill near the goal line and the utility star has scored in three straight games entering the playoffs. If you’re looking for an even higher upside, you could look for Hill to be the first player who scores a touchdown in this game at +1200. According to CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh’s simulations, this is a solid value for Hill, who +760 to score first in his sims. 

David Montgomery total rushing yards: Over 61.5 (-115). New Orleans has struggled against the run over the last month and Montgomery is arguably the hottest running back coming into these playoffs. Over his last six starts, the second-year back is averaging 5.16 yards per carry. 

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Drew Brees total passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-210). Not a ton of value here, but Brees threw for multiple touchdowns against this secondary back in Week 8. He also fresh off a three-touchdown performance in Week 17 against the Panthers


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