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Bills vs. Chiefs odds, line: NFL picks, 2021 AFC Championship Game predictions by advanced model on 120-78 run

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It should be a battle of young superstars when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in the 2021 AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. They are the league’s top two teams in total offense, with former MVP Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs (15-2), who rank first in total yards and passing yards. Josh Allen calls the shots for the Bills (15-3), who are second in total yards and scoring. Both quarterbacks have plenty of talent to work with, so the pressure will be on the defenses to rise to the challenge.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 54.5. Before you lock in your Chiefs vs. Bills picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Championship Weekend in the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

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The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

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Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -3
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 54.5
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo +140, Kansas City -160
  • BUFF: WR Stefon Diggs has at least six receptions in 15 straight games
  • KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least eight catches in eight of the past nine games

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-3

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 25-15-1 against the spread over the last three seasons against AFC foes, and tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill are the most dangerous duo in the league. Kelce was second in the NFL in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,416) during the regular season, and Hill joined him on the All-Pro team after putting up 1,276 yards and 15 TDs. They both topped 100 yards last week.

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Mahomes was second in passing yards during the regular season, throwing for 4,740 and 38 TDs. A defensive front led by Frank Clark and Chris Jones (13.5 combined sacks) will get after Allen, who has been taken down 30 times. Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorenson have combined for 10 interceptions and each has scored a TD.

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo has won 11 of its past 12 games and covered the spread in nine of its past 10. Allen has played near an MVP level, throwing for more than 5,000 yards including the postseason. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the league in catches and yards in the regular season and has 234 yards in two playoff games.

The Bills, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings in Kansas City, should be able to run the ball against K.C.’s 21st-ranked run defense. Devin Singletary had 956 total yards in the regular season, while Allen rushed for 421 yards.

A stout Buffalo secondary is led by Tre’Davious White (five takeaways) and Jordan Poyer (team-high 124 tackles).

How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 50 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see which side to back here.

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So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.


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