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Bills vs. Patriots odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions from proven model

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An AFC East battle features the Buffalo Bills (8-3) visiting the New England Patriots (6-5) on Thursday Night Football. Buffalo heads into this divisional matchup on a two-game win streak. On Thanksgiving, the Bills topped the Detroit Lions 28-25. Meanwhile, New England had its three-game win streak halted, falling 33-26 to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving night.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 4.5 points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is 43.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

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Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and NFL TNF Week 13 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Buffalo -4.5
  • Bills vs. Patriots over/under: 43.5 points
  • Bills vs. Patriots money line: Buffalo -220, New England +180
  • BUF: Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in December
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus AFC opponents
  • Bills vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo has one of the most explosive and electric offenses in the league. The Bills roll into this contest ranked second in total offense (415.9) and scoring (28.1) ,but third in passing offense (279.2). They are led by quarterback Josh Allen.

Allen is a standout athlete who has one of the strongest throwing arms in the league. He can let it rip 70 yards with ease while owning pinpoint accuracy. The 2020 Pro Bowl selection is also a superb running threat and will constantly pick up easy yards with his legs. Allen is second in the league in passing yards (3,183), second in passing touchdowns (23) and third in QBR (73.6). Additionally, he’s leading the squad in rushing yards (561) with five rushing scores. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Bill Belichick will have his team ready to roll in this divisional contest. New England has a strong defense that plays extremely fast and physically. This unit is ranked fourth in total defense (307.8) and ninth in both pass defense (198.5) and run defense (109.3).

Linebacker Matt Judon is having a monster campaign. Judon has become a consistent threat screaming off the edge with outstanding instincts as a pass-rusher. The three-time Pro Bowl selection is explosive off the snap and is solid against the run. The 30-year-old is leading the league in sacks (13) along with 11 TFLs. Judon continues to dominate for the Patriots and will be hungry in this primetime affair. See which team to pick here.

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How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 44 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.


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