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Browns vs. Steelers odds, line, spread: NFL picks, 2021 Wild Card predictions from proven model on 119-77 roll

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The Cleveland Browns will try to continue a storybook season on Sunday. The Browns finished the regular season with an 11-5 record, advancing to the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2002. After that journey, Cleveland’s reward is a rematch with the Steelers after the Browns toppled a shorthanded Pittsburgh team in Week 17. Pittsburgh lost four of the last five games in the regular season, though the Steelers won their first 11.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Steelers as six-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Browns vs. Steelers odds. Before you make any Steelers vs. Browns picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 23-13 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 119-77 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

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The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 


Now, the model has set its sights on Browns vs. Steelers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Browns vs. Steelers:

  • Browns vs. Steelers spread: Steelers -6
  • Browns vs. Steelers over-under: 47.5 points
  • Browns vs. Steelers money line: Steelers -275, Browns +235
  • CLE: Browns are 3-5 against the spread in road games
  • PIT: Steelers are 5-3 against the spread in home games

Why the Browns can cover

The Steelers were eighth-worst in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 334.6 yards per game, and Pittsburgh’s rushing attack was virtually non-existent. Pittsburgh was 32nd (last) in the league in rushing yards per game (84.4) and per carry (3.6), and the Steelers were also anything but explosive through the air.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger does have gifted receivers to work with, but Pittsburgh averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt (third-worst in the NFL), so the Browns should be able to maintain aggressiveness without yielding big plays.

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Why the Steelers can cover

The Steelers are elite at protecting the passer, giving up only 14 sacks during the entire regular season, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger should be well rested after missing Week 17. Pittsburgh is also above-average on third down, converting 42.2 percent of its opportunities, and the Browns are a below-average third down defense at 43.9 percent allowed.

Pittsburgh’s passing game features dynamic weapons on the outside, and the Browns can be vulnerable through the air. In fact, Cleveland had a below-average pass defense during the regular season, giving up 247.6 yards per game, which could open the door for Pittsburgh to be more effective when throwing the football.

How to make Browns vs. Steelers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with the Steelers projected to rush for fewer than 100 yards and the Browns projected to throw nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see who to back here.

So who wins Steelers vs. Browns in the NFL Playoffs 2021? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Steelers vs. Browns spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that’s 119-77 on NFL picks, and find out.  

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