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NFL odds, lines, picks, predictions for Week 4, 2020: Proven model backing Cowboys, Bills

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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were already considered one of the 2021 Super Bowl favorites, but after a dominant win over the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 3, it’s become clear they’re the cream of the crop in the AFC. However, the Chiefs will be challenged again on Sunday as Bill Belichick, Cam Newton and the New England Patriots come to Arrowhead Stadium for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. The Chiefs are favored by seven in the latest Week 4 NFL odds from William Hill. This week’s NFL lines list the Chiefs vs. Patriots total at 54. 

Where is the value in the current NFL betting lines? And which NFL spreads should you target for your Week 4 NFL bets? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,500 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago.

It’s off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.


Now, it has examined the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.

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Top NFL predictions for Week 4

One of the top Week 4 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Cowboys (-4.5) cover at home against the Browns. Dallas is off to a disappointing 1-2 straight-up start with an 0-3 mark against the spread. That’s the worst start against the spread for the Cowboys since 1989, when they began 0-6. 

But Cleveland has struggled mightily against the spread on the road, entering this matchup on an 0-7 ATS losing streak away from FirstEnergy Stadium. SportsLine’s model is calling for more big offensive numbers from Dallas, as quarterback Dak Prescott throws for well over 300 yards and running back Ezekiel Elliott easily clears 100 yards of total offense. Dallas covers almost 60 percent of the time, while the under (55.5) hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. 

Another one of the top Week 4 NFL picks from the model: The Buffalo Bills (-3) win and cover on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. Buffalo raced out to a 28-3 lead last week against L.A. Even after the Rams scored 29 unanswered points to take a 32-28 lead with under five minutes to play, Buffalo’s offense put together a game-winning drive to get to 3-0. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is throwing for 346 yards per game so far and has thrown for 10 touchdowns with just one interception.

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Against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed, look for Allen and the Bills to cause plenty of mismatches. The model predicts that Allen accounts for well over 300 total yards and three total touchdowns as the Bills cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. The Under (52.5) also hits in over 60 percent of SportsLine’s projections.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks 

The model also has made the call on the huge Chiefs vs. Patriots matchup as well as every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule. It’s also identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,500 on its top-rated NFL picks

NFL odds, matchups for Week 4

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (PK+3, 40)
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 43.5)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (+4, 54)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 51)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 49)
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 56)
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4.5, 54.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (+6.5, 53)
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 43)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (off the board)
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13, 48)
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+3, 52.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 46)
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team (+13, 45)
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 53)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 56.5)

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