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NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model reveals predictions, picks to win, teams to avoid

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The new NFL season is quickly approaching, and despite losing Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the team to beat, according to the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and a plethora of game-breaking pass catchers, the Chiefs are the +525 favorites at William Hill Sportsbook to win Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium. The Buccaneers, who are led by seven-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady and beat Kansas City in Super Bowl LV, are +650.

The Buffalo Bills, who are winless in four Super Bowl appearances, own the third-best 2022 Super Bowl futures odds at +1300. Every other team is listed at +1400 or higher. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

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Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

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Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Colts, even though they’re huge long shots at +2500 to win the Super Bowl. The team made a major acquisition in the offseason by trading for quarterback Carson Wentz, formerly of the Eagles. He replaces Philip Rivers, who retired after the 2020 season. In Indianapolis, Wentz will be reunited with Frank Reich, who was Wentz’s offensive coordinator in 2017 when the quarterback had arguably his best season, throwing a career-high 33 touchdowns.

At +2500, Indianapolis has an implied winning percentage of 3.8, but the model projects the Colts to win 7.0 percent of the time, meaning they provide value at this price.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay returns all 22 starters and every key reserve and specialist from last season’s Super Bowl-winning team. In the offseason, the Buccaneers added veteran running back Giovani Bernard and rookie edge rusher Joe Tryon, among others.

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However at +650, they have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, but the model projects them winning the Super Bowl just 12.3 percent of the time. The odds on Tampa Bay could drop even lower as more fans bet on the reigning Super Bowl champs.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000

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