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NFL Week 11 odds, picks: Packers move to 10-1 ATS in win vs. Vikings; Falcons cover against Patriots

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Well, it took us 10 weeks to fall behind with a losing record on our Lock of the Week but it finally happened. While we can certainly hang our hats on a strong start to the year, it stings nonetheless going 1-4 ATS with our lone victory being the Patriots‘ blowout over Cleveland. We were on the opposite end of a couple of upsets, including the Ravens falling to the Dolphins and the 49ers beating the Rams, which were both included in last week’s locks section. 

We still stand well above .500 in that section for the season, but we’ll now try to pick up the pieces and get moving in a positive direction in Week 11. Let’s get to it. 

2021 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 27-19-4
ATS: 68-77-4
ML: 89-59-1

Latest Odds:

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Atlanta Falcons
+7

New England has been red hot over the last four weeks and has outscored its opponents 150-50 over this four-game winning streak it is riding into Thursday Night Football. While I expect the Patriots to make it five in a row, laying seven points on the road does feel a little too rich for my blood. The Falcons are coming off a blowout loss to the Cowboys in Week 10 and will likely be rearing to bounce back with a more competitive showing. While they are currently in last place in their division, Atlanta has been competitive this year at 4-5 and was playing much better prior to that blowout against Dallas. 

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Projected score: Patriots 24, Falcons 21
The pick: Falcons +7

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Latest Odds:

Jacksonville Jaguars
+6

The 49ers played exactly the type of football they want to play in their home upset against the Rams. They dominated on the ground and took advantage of the opposing offense’s mistakes on defense. Jacksonville is surprisingly a top-10 defense against the run in DVOA, but did just allow Jonathan Taylor to average 5.5 yards per carry and 116 yards on the ground last week. If they play more like that on defense, they’ll have a tough time staying competitive with an emerging Niners team.  

Projected score: 49ers 28, Jaguars 17
The pick: 49ers -6

Latest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings
+2.5

I’ll absolutely lean on the Packers if I can get them under a field goal, even if it is on the road against a division rival. Green Bay is an NFL-best 9-1 ATS this season and owns a margin of victory that slots just over the field goal threshold. While the Packers were able to get a win last week against Seattle, Aaron Rodgers didn’t play as well as we’re used to seeing him in his return from COVID-19, throwing no touchdowns and an interception. That suggests a bigger bounce-back game from him this week a Vikings franchise that he owns a 108.5 career passer rating against. 

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Projected score: Packers 27, Vikings 24
The pick: Packers -2.5 

Latest Odds:

Carolina Panthers
-3.5

After a very disappointing start to the season, Washington’s defense has started to play slightly better as of late and was able to hold the Buccaneers to 19 points in a Week 10 win. They’ll now face a Panthers team that is expected to start Cam Newton at quarterback. While he was able to score two touchdowns in limited playing time last week in his return, Newton will still likely have some rust to shake off. Even if he’s back to form, he’s not the same quarterback he was during his first stint with the Panthers, who’ll now have a shorter ceiling offensively. I’ll gladly take the hook with these similar opponents. 

Projected score: Panthers 23, Washington 20
The pick: Washington +3.5

Dolphins at Jets 

Latest Odds:

New York Jets
+3

New York is reportedly expected to start Joe Flacco at quarterback this week, which doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Meanwhile, Miami has been playing much better ball recently and just upset the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Defensively, the Dolphins have allowed opponents to average 4.6 yards per play over the last three weeks, which is the third-best mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jets have allowed a league-worst 7.9 yards per play over that same stretch. 

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Projected score: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
The pick: Dolphins -3

Rest of the bunch

Colts at Bills 
Projected score: Bills 30, Colts 21
The pick: Bills -7

Ravens at Bears
Projected score: Ravens 24, Bears 23
The pick: Bears +6

Lions at Browns
Projected score: Browns 30, Lions 17
The pick: Browns -10

Texans at Titans
Projected score: Titans 24, Texans 17
The pick: Texans +10

Saints at Eagles
Projected score: Saints 23, Eagles 21
The pick: Saints +1.5

Bengals at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 27, Bengals 24
The pick: Raiders +1

Cowboys at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 28
The pick: Cowboys +2.5

Cardinals at Seahawks
Projected score: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20
The pick: Cardinals -2.5

Steelers at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 26, Steelers 21
The pick: Steelers +5.5

Giants at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Giants 20
The pick: Giants +11


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