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NFL Week 12 odds, picks: Kyler Murray rolls in New England, Steelers remain undefeated with Thanksgiving win

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Week 11 is in the books and we’re happy to leave it on the side of the road as we continue through the 2020 season. Unlike our solid Week 10 run, this slate of games wasn’t particularly kind, handing us an abysmal 3-11 ATS mark. The noticeable misses were the Chiefs failing to cover a 6.5 spread against Vegas, a field goal advantage not being enough for the Cardinals over the Seahawks, and both the Packers and Vikings falling just short against the Colts and Cowboys against the spread, respectfully. These types of weeks are bound to happen from time-to-time and because we’ve been rolling for quite some time, we were in line for a bit of a humbling week.

As we shake off Week 11 and make it more of an outlier, we’ll look towards Week 12 where we’ll hopefully have a bit more to be thankful for as we have three Thanksgiving day games on the docket on Thursday, along with our usual Sunday slate and Monday Night Football. As we await the holiday kickoff, here’s a look at who I’m leaning towards heading into this week. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook. 

Locks of the Week

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

While Pittsburgh walked away with the win back in Week 8, it wasn’t by much. The Ravens only lost by four points and arguably played better than the Steelers totaling 457 yards of offense to their 221 yards. Had it not been for Lamar Jackson’s four turnovers, they likely would have slapped the Steelers with their first loss of 2020. We expect Jackson, who is 6-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, to have a cleaner outing on Thanksgiving, keeping this game close and likely determined by a field goal. Because Pittsburgh is the better all-around team, I expect they’ll find a way to win, but it’s wise to lean on the points with Baltimore here. 


Projected score: Steelers 23, Ravens 20
My pick: Ravens +4 

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Arizona at New England

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Latest Odds:


I expect the Cardinals to snap their 0-3 ATS streak against New England on Sunday. The Patriots had tremendous problems containing Deshaun Watson in Week 11 and those same issues could arise with Kyler Murray, who has a similar skillset and is currently playing at a higher level. Even if they try to apply a bit more pressure onto Murray than they did Watson, his speed should be able to get him out of whatever the Patriots throw his way. Together, Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury, a former Patriots quarterback once upon a time, are 8-3-2 on the road and are 5-1 ATS in the Eastern Time Zone. 

Projected score: Arizona 27, New England 17 
My pick: Arizona -2.5

Las Vegas at Atlanta

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Las Vegas Raiders continue to be slept on a bit, despite taking the Kansas City Cheifs to the brink in Week 11. They have covered four-straight games and are now 7-3 ATS this season. While the Falcons have been able to remain somewhat respectable in the aftermath of Dan Quinn’s firing, they are not trustworthy enough to lean on here. Atlanta struggled to protect Matt Ryan against the Saints last time out, allowing eight sacks while the offense only mustered nine points. If those struggles continue, the Raiders should have no problem cruising over this field goal spread. This season, Las Vegas is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite.

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Projected score: Las Vegas 28, Atlanta 17
My pick: Las Vegas -3

Cleveland at Jacksonville

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Despite a 7-3 record, the Cleveland Browns don’t make it easy on themselves. Their -23 point differential is the worst by any 7-3 team or better through 10 games in the Super Bowl era. That said, Jacksonville isn’t in the business of winning games in 2020, losing nine straight after winning the season opener. With Nick Chubb back in full swing in the Browns offense, I expect Kevin Stefanski’s team to clear this game by at least a touchdown. In the six games that Chubb has been active, the Browns are averaging over 100 more rushing yards per game than in the four games he was inactive. They also have 10 rushing touchdowns in those six games he was on the field compared to zero rushing scores when he was out. He’s the definition of a difference-maker against a team that is allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season. 

Projected score: Cleveland 20, Jacksonville 9
My pick: Cleveland -6.5

Houston at Detroit

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Deshaun Watson reminded us last week against New England that he can will his team to victory on any given Sunday. Not only that, but Houston’s run defense showed improvement against the Patriots’ strong rushing attack in Week 11. This is part of the Texans heating up for their standards, covering back-to-back games since starting the year off 1-7 ATS. As he prepares to take on the Lions on Thanksgiving, it’s worth nothing he’s 7-0 straight-up in his career on short rest and 3-2-2 ATS. While the Lions have historically played well on Thanksgiving (6-2 ATS in their last eight games), this version of Detroit looks like they’ve lost faith in their head coach as of late, coming into Week 12 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four games. 

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Projected score: Texans 28, Detroit 20
My pick: Houston -2.5

Rest of the Bunch

Washington at Dallas
 score: Washington 21, Dallas 17
My pick: Washington +3

L.A. Chargers at Buffalo 
Projected score: Buffalo 24, L.A. Chargers 20
My pick: L.A. Chargers +5.5

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati
Projected score: N.Y. Giants 24, Cincinnati 14
My pick: N.Y. Giants -5.5

Tennessee at Indianapolis
Projected score: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 21
My pick: Indianapolis -4

Carolina at Minnesota
Projected score: Minnesota 24, Carolina 17
My pick: Minnesota -4

Miami at N.Y. Jets
Projected score: Miami 23, N.Y. Jets 13
My pick: Miami -7

New Orleans at Denver 
Projected score: New Orleans 28, Denver 14
My pick: New Orleans -5.5

San Francisco at L.A. Rams
Projected score: L.A. Rams 30, San Francisco 20
My pick: L.A. Rams -7.5

Kansas City at Tampa Bay 
Projected score: Kansas City 30, Tampa Bay 28
My pick: Tampa Bay +3 

Chicago at Green Bay 
Projected score: Green Bay 24, Chicago 13 
My pick: Green Bay -8.5

Seattle at Philadelphia
Projected score: Seattle 27, Philadelphia 21
My pick: Seattle -5.5

Picks Record 

Against the spread in Week 11: 3-11
ATS overall: 78-77-5

Straight up in Week 11: 7-7
SU overall: 105-54-1

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