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NFL Week 17 teaser pick rankings: Trust in the Chiefs backups and seven more teaser options to consider

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The Teaser of the Week took a blow last Sunday when the Texans somehow had no answers for the Bengals offense, and while it’s easy to play the what-if game, our No. 3 ranked team (Rams) didn’t fare any better. However, everyone else in our rankings cashed on their teaser numbers, so hopefully you were able to find a winner. We’re now 8-7-1 in this space and needing a winner on the toughest week of the year to finish over .500 on the season.

I’ve done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities of the week. Below, I’ve ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.

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Ranking teaser options

1. Chiefs +9.5 vs. Chargers

Yes, I’m aware that Patrick Mahomes and several other key players are going to rest with Kansas City having nothing to play for. But to that I say, so what? This is still a coaching matchup of Andy Reid vs. Anthony Lynn, and if the Chargers haven’t managed a double-digit win against anyone other than the Jaguars this year, what makes you think they’ll get it done against Chiefs backups?

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2. Buccaneers -0.5 vs. Falcons

The Bucs are locked into a wild-card spot but it doesn’t sound like they’re going to rest their starters here even though they could very well get the fifth seed with a loss if the Rams can’t get a win behind backup quarterback John Wolford. The Falcons have the worst record in the NFC but a point differential just one point under zero, so they’ve performed more like an 8-8 team than one that could be 4-12 after this week. If they come out motivated, this could be an iffy pick as well, but I’ll trust Bruce Arians and back the Bucs to win.

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3. Titans -1.5 at Texans

I am worried a bit about the Texans playing spoiler in this game, so I wanted to rank this one lower, but it ended up being better than some other imperfect options. If the Bengals can score 37 against this Houston defense, the Titans should be able to score no fewer than 185 points in this game, which means it doesn’t really matter that their defense is also pretty awful.

4. Eagles +7.5 vs. Washington

It’s possible the Eagles don’t show up for this game after getting bounced from the playoff race last week, but I can’t see a hobbled Alex Smith or Taylor Heinicke going on the road and beating Philadelphia by more than a touchdown. So the Eagles make the cut thanks to getting the number through 3 and 7.

5. Broncos +8.5 vs. Raiders

The Raiders suffered a brutal loss on Saturday to snuff any long shot playoff hopes out, and I doubt they’re excited to hit the road and finish their season a mile high in Denver. The Broncos lost again last week but outgained the Chargers by a considerable margin and just struggled to put points on the board. That shouldn’t be an issue against this woeful Vegas defense, especially with Drew Lock looking to make his case that he’s the answer at QB for John Elway’s team.

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6. Browns -4 vs. Steelers

The Steelers should be resting players, which has ballooned this line up to double digits. Since we’re not getting through the key number of 3, I can’t rank this game that high as a potential teaser, but the Browns should be able to take care of business.

7. Jets +9 at Patriots

The Patriots, who are playing on a short week to close out the season, are not good at all. We can’t just expect the offense to throw a bunch of points on the board, so with the Jets actually playing somewhat decent to close out the season as people try to save their jobs, I don’t see Adam Gase’s squad getting blown out here.

8. Cardinals +7 at Rams

This one comes with a caveat, as this game isn’t available at every book as we wait to see what’s happening at quarterback for Arizona. But William Hill has it posted at Rams -1, and if we get an indication Kyler Murray is playing, run to the window and get this one in before Arizona is laying points.

Lines to avoid teasing

Vikings (-7) at Lions

Teasing the Lions down to -1 makes a ton of sense, but combine the motivation factor with them having to play this game on the road to close out the season, and it felt like there were better options to attack. 

Cowboys (-3) at Giants

It feels like the Giants are a nice option here considering they should be giving their all and hoping they’ll get into the playoffs, but the Cowboys offense is on fire, scoring 108 points over the last three weeks. If that offense shows up in this game, I could see them winning in a blowout. So this will be a stayaway.

Ravens (-13) at Bengals

The Bengals are all kinds of ready to play spoiler coming off back-to-back weeks, so I don’t trust teasing the Ravens. But Baltimore could also win by 30, so I’m not teasing the Bengals either.

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Packers (-5.5) at Bears

Both sides of this one look tempting; the Packers should be able to get an outright win against the Bears, but the Bears offense is playing well enough to make this a shootout, right? I don’t know what to do with this one, which means I do know what to do: stay away.

Jaguars at Colts (-14)

We’re not getting great value teasing this one down, plus the Jaguars can go all out to win this game knowing the No. 1 pick is locked in. This is a definite non-teaser this week.

Seahawks (-5.5) at 49ers

Teasing the Seahawks down and essentially just needing them to win feels safe, but you know the 49ers would love to play spoiler here and end their season on a high note. So I’m putting them in the no-tease list this week.

Saints (-6.5) at Panthers

Of all the potential spoiler teams, the Panthers seem the most dangerous to me. You know motivation won’t be a factor, as Matt Rhule is locked in to the job long-term. The Panthers have played teams tough in the final stretch, losing by one in Minnesota, by eight in Green Bay and by five at home against the Broncos, a run of three games sandwiched around a pair of wins. I want no business teasing the Saints on the road here.

Dolphins at Bills (OFF)

This line wasn’t available at William Hill at the time of writing, but I do see the Bills as short favorites at some spots. If you can tease the Dolphins through 3 and 7 to get them at +7.5 or better, I think that’s a fine option as I don’t expect Buffalo to go all out in Week 17.


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