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Packers vs. Colts odds, line, spread: 2020 NFL picks, predictions from model on 114-74 run

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The Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers square off in a cross-conference matchup on Sunday. The Colts boast a 6-3 record after a decisive road win over AFC South rival Tennessee in their last matchup. The Packers have won two straight, including a narrow win over the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago. Philip Rivers and the Colts host the festivities at Lucas Oil Stadium. 

Kick-off is at 1 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Colts as 1.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 51.5 in the latest Packers vs. Colts odds. Before you make any Packers vs. Colts picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning over $800. The model also enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-74 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

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Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Colts. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Colts vs. Packers:

  • Packers vs. Colts spread: Colts -2.5
  • Packers vs. Colts over-under: 51.5 points
  • Packers vs. Colts money line: Colts -135, Packers +115
  • GB: Packers are 6-3 against the spread this season
  • IND: Colts are 3-0 against the spread when facing NFC teams
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Why the Packers can cover

The Packers are an exceptionally potent offensive team, headlined by the connection between quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams in the passing game. Green Bay ranks third in the NFL in scoring, averaging 30.8 points per game, and sixth in the league in both total offense (395.8 yards per game) and passing offense (274.3 yards per game).

Rodgers keys a passing attack that is No. 4 in the league in yards per attempt (8.2) and No. 2 in touchdown passes (26), with only three interceptions and 11 sacks allowed in 2020. The Packers rank in the top 10 of the NFL in allowing only 335.9 total yards per game, and the Colts struggle in multiple areas offensively. Indianapolis is a bottom-five team with only 11 passing touchdowns and struggles to only 3.8 yards per carry on the ground.

Why the Colts can cover

The Colts are an elite defensive team this season. Indianapolis leads the NFL in total defense, giving up only 290.4 yards per game, and is excellent in stopping both the run and the pass. The Colts rank second in pass defense (198.7 yards allowed per game) and third in run defense (91.8 yards allowed per game), with top-five marks in yards per rush allowed (3.5) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.8).

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Indianapolis is also opportunistic, snatching 11 interceptions this season, and the Colts have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed (nine).

On the offensive side, Indianapolis isn’t as explosive, but the Colts do protect quarterback Rivers. The Colts have allowed only nine sacks this season, fewest in the NFL, and Indianapolis ranks in the top ten of the league in completion percentage (68.0 percent) and passing yards (262.4 yards per game).

How to make Packers vs. Colts picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with no running back projected to exceed 50 rushing yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick here.

So who wins Packers vs. Colts, and which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Colts spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that’s up over $7,800 on NFL picks, and find out.  


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