Partner Content | Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year: Michael Harris II leads the pack

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More than three months into the season, the NL Rookie of the Year field remains wide open, creating both opportunities and pitfalls for futures bettors.

The latest: Michael Harris II has dazzled with his power and athleticism, Spencer Strider is looking good as a starter and Jack Suwinski is coming on strong.

Just past the season’s halfway point, here are the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds.

NL Rookie of the Year odds

Player Odds
Michael Harris II +375
Oneil Cruz +475
Spencer Strider +475
Mackenzie Gore +600
Brendan Donovan +1,000
Nolan Gorman +1,000
Juan Yepez +1,100
Seiya Suzuki +1,700
Jack Suwinski +2,200
Alex Thomas +2,700

Odds as of 1:45 p.m. on 07/05/2022.


Best AL Rookie of the Year odds

The favourite: Michael Harris II (+350)

In terms of tools, Harris is impressive across the board. The 21-year-old has stellar pure power and speed and it’s not hard to imagine him having a long career as a multi-faceted contributor.

These kind of traits are hard to come by:

Although Harris has the production to match thus far, there are some red flags in his performance. He strikes out at an above-average rate and rarely walks, and his expected stats are lower than his actual numbers — suggesting he’s gotten some good luck early in his career.

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Harris’ defensive chops give him a high floor, but all of FanGraphs’ projection systems see the Atlanta outfielder as a below-average hitter from here on out.

If we were betting on which rookie would have the best career, Harris’ youth and skill set would give him an edge, but he’s still pretty raw and his offensive numbers seem likely to fall as the season goes on.

Other NL Rookie of the Year choices

Best value: Spencer Strider (+475)

Entering the season, Strider didn’t look like much of a candidate for this award, but a midseason promotion to the Braves’ rotation has changed his prospects.

Strider’s elite fastball velocity made him a bullpen weapon, but he’s shown he can be much more since converting to a starter without losing significant per-inning effectiveness. The right-hander leads all NL rookies (pitchers and position players) in fWAR (1.9), and his strikeout rate as a starter (13.5 K/9) is among the league’s elite.

The 23-year-old struggles with walks and hard contact at times, but his bat-missing dominance tends to get him out of trouble. A 98.3 mph fastball will do that for you.

In a rookie class with relatively unimpressive pitching, Strider is the NL’s best in virtually every category. His primary rival in most ways is Mackenzie Gore, who could be in for some regression thanks to an xERA that dwarfs his actual ERA. Strider, on the other hand, has spotless peripherals underlying his impressive results.

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Read more: NL Cy Young odds

Player to watch: Jack Suwinski (+2,200)

Suwinski isn’t a household name, but he’s the most prolific power bat in the field. The 23-year-old leads all rookies in home runs (13) and is already building a reputation for hitting towering bombs.

While he can’t match Harris’ defensive abilities, his offensive production is solid — and trending up. The Pittsburgh Pirates rolled the dice in late April by promoting him from Double-A, and so far that gamble has paid off.

Suwinski initially struggled to adjust to MLB pitching. From June 1 through early July, he’s been a top-25 hitter in the majors by wRC+.

That’s not a pace he’s likely to keep up, but all five of FanGraphs’ projection systems see him as a better hitter than Harris from here on out. A couple of highlight-reel home runs and a little luck could put him right in the thick of this race.


Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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