Heat vs. Nuggets odds, prediction, start time: 2023 NBA Finals picks, Game 2 best bets from model on 72-38 run

The eyes of the basketball world will be on Denver in prime time on Sunday night. The Miami Heat visit the Denver Nuggets for Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals. Denver prevailed in the series opener, winning by 11 points to take early control of the proceedings. Miami looks to continue its resilience from a historic playoff run, and the Heat aim to bounce back after a woeful shooting night in Game 1. 

Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET in Denver. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as 8.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216 in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

• Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -8.5
• Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 216 points
• Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -385, Heat +300
• MIA: The Heat are 22-28-1 against the spread in road games
• DEN: The Nuggets are 31-18-1 against the spread in home games
• Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Heat can cover

Miami struggled to make shots in Game 1, but the Heat have performed well on offense in the recent past. The Heat committed only eight turnovers in Game 1, winning the overall possession battle in the process, and Bam Adebayo was a true standout. The All-Star center produced 26 points and 13 rebounds in the opener after averaging 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game during the regular season, and Adebayo is a dynamic presence in the middle. 

Miami is also shooting a blistering 38.7% from 3-point range in the postseason, leading the NBA, and the Heat are averaging only 12.2 giveaways per game during this playoff run. Miami is also an elite free throw shooting team, ranking No. 2 in the NBA during the regular season, and the Heat are led by a superstar in Jimmy Butler. He is averaging 27.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game in the playoffs, putting constant pressure on opposing defenses and facilitating Miami’s actions while surrounded by top-level floor spacing. See which team to pick here.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver has the best offense in the 2023 NBA playoffs, scoring more than 1.19 points per possession and dominating the competition. While the Nuggets shot well from inside the arc and avoided turnovers in the opener, Denver was able to win despite poor 3-point shooting. A strong defensive effort was a prominent part of the equation, with the Nuggets giving up only 1.00 points per possession in Game 1. 

The Nuggets held the Heat to 41% shooting from the field and 33% from 3-point range on Thursday, and Denver did a masterful job avoiding fouls, yielding only two free throw attempts. Denver also secured the defensive glass, and the Nuggets have an outstanding 76.5% defensive rebound rate in the postseason. The Nuggets gave up only four fast break points and 38 points in the paint to Miami in Game 1, and Denver is riding an impressive 111 defensive rating in the playoffs. With an undefeated record at home and the advantage at altitude, the Nuggets can be confident in the rematch. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.