Why the Padres will keep winning vs. Nationals, plus other best bets for Wednesday

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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Padres at Nationals, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds:


San Diego Padres

  • The Pick: Padres (-160)
  • Key Trend: The Padres are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Washington.

After dropping nine of their last 10 games, the Padres have won two in a row. I’m expecting San Diego to keep their winning ways against the Nationals.

Nationals starter Trevor Williams has struggled, as he owns a 4.26 ERA and has really been vulnerable to the long ball. The right-hander has surrendered three home runs over his last three starts, including yielding a pair of homers to the Diamondbacks earlier this month. In addition, Williams has a career 5.26 ERA when facing the Padres.

It doesn’t hurt that the Padres possess a very dangerous lineup that features the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Xander Boegarts. Soto torched his former team in Tuesday’s 7-4 win as he went 3-for-4 and launched a solo home run. The Padres also are a very patient team, with 200 walks to their credit. Look for the Padres to score often to earn a win in this one.

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💰 More MLB Picks

Tigers at Royals, 7:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds:

Under 8.5

The Pick: Under 9 (-120) — In a game where both pitchers have lofty ERAs, most of the time you’re going to be on the over. That’s not the case in this contest.

Tigers starter Matthew Boyd may have a 6.21 ERA on the season, but the left-hander has actually pitched really well lately. Aside from giving up five and six earned runs in two separate starts, Boyd has yielded three or fewer runs in six of his eight starts on the season. Boyd has also surrendered three runs or less in two of his last three outings.

On the other hand, Zack Greinke‘s 4.82 ERA is also a tad misleading. Greinke has put together a strong stretch, as the veteran right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Now, Greinke did have a late April stretch in which he gave up at least four earned runs in three consecutive starts, but he’s pitched extremely well aside from that. The Tigers and Royals rank No. 25 and No. 26, respectively, in team batting average. Both tare hitting .229 or under for the season. I just don’t see these two offenses being able to light it up against pitchers that are throwing the ball well.

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Key Trend: The under is 5-1 in the Royals last six games.

Dodgers at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: MLB Network
The Pick: Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
 — In a battle between the two top teams in the National League, it’s quite possible there will be a lot of runs being scored. However, I’m still trusting that the Dodgers will strike out a handful of times in this one.

Right-hander Bryce Elder has been terrific for the Braves in his second season with the team. Elder has registered at least six strikeouts in two of his last four starts, including six against the Mariners in his most recent outing. The Dodgers may have a dangerous offense, but they currently have recorded 449 strikeouts (fifth in the majors). In fact, Los Angeles has struck out 21 times in the first two games of this series against the Braves alone. Look for Elder to get the five that we need — and it’s a bonus that you’re getting it at plus money.

Key Trend: Elder has recorded at least six strikeouts in two of his last four starts.

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